Feb
25
2014

# Schumacher, there's still hope...

After a long delay, today morning Schumacher's manager Sabine Kehm released a new statement confirming small and encouraging signs:

We are and remain confident that Michael will pull through and wake up. There are small, encouraging signs, but we also know that this is the time to be very patient. Michael has suffered severe injuries.

It is very hard to comprehend for all of us that Michael, who had overcome a lot of precarious situations in the past, has been hurt so terribly in such a banal situation. It was clear from the start that this will be a long and hard fight for Michael. We are taking this fight on together with the team of doctors, whom we fully trust. The length of the process is not the important part for us.

There are lots of different ways to read this statement, both in positive and negative light. However I'm choosing the positive one and hoping that Schumi will win this fight. It is clear that the recovery will be long and probably not complete, but I'm hoping he will recover enough to be able to still enjoy life.

Keep fighting Schumi!

Oct
5
2013

# The sad state of software developers in Albania (and maybe in the World)

Today I did a test to hire a junior developer. From about 20 applications, I did select 6 that I thought were the best and from them only 4 did show up! I presented to them a test that I thought was pretty easy. Here are the questions of the test:

1. Write a program that will print out the longest sequence without prime numbers, less than a given number N.

Example: If N is give 30, the sequence is 24, 25, 26, 27, 28.

2. Write a program that print out the result of the following method called with a value of 6.

public static void mystery(int n) {

if (n == 0 || n == 1) return;

mystery(n-2);

println(n);

mystery(n-1);

}

3. The table Orders has the following fields Id, Product, Amount, Price. Write a query to print out the product name and amount for all products that have "TV" in their name and for which the amount ordered is bigger than 1,000 euro.
4. Describe with a single sentence the following terms: HTTP, HTML, CSS, jQuery, XML, SQL, C#, SVN, IL, SEO.
5. Describe the last project that you have worked for and the solution you have implemented explaining why you did it that way.

The total test had 100 points and I was expecting all of them to get at least 50-60 points. It turns out it was too much! Two of the candidates were already working as software developers and they got 15 points!!! I don't see how on earth they would produce anything useful. The other two were still students and were able to get 45-50 points which in comparison it's a pretty good result, but considering the test it's pretty poor!

It's a pretty sad state, when your best candidate for software developer isn't able to write a simple SQL query!

Jul
28
2013

# Albanian 2013 Election results

The result of the elections confirmed one thing: Politics and Math don't like each other :) The result was a surprise for everyone and I'm going to analyze it. Instead below I'm posting the original prediction for the members of the parliament, corrected based on the current results (there are still some decisions that can change).

Tirana District

1. Pandeli Majko - PS, 245,000 results
2. Sali Berisha - PD, 4,080,000 results
3. Saimir Tahiri - PS, 125,000 results
4. Myqerem Tafaj - PD, 72,200 results
5. Vasilika Hysi - PS, 42,600 results
6. Majlinda Bregu - PD, 264,000 results
7. Ditmir Bushati - PS, 152,000 results
8. Halim Kosova - PD, 108,000 results
9. Fatmir Xhafaj - PS, 48,400 results
10. Florion Mima - PD, 13,600 results
11. Ilir Meta - LSI, 1,260,000 results
12. Gerti Bogdani - PD, 113,000 results
13. Lindita Nikolla - PS, 26,700 results
14. Dashamir Shehi - LZHK1,,42,500 results
15. Besnik Baraj - PS, 39,500 results
16. Jorida Tabaku - PD, 40,800 results
17. Xhemal Qefalia - PS, 18,900 results
18. Edi Paloka - PD, 49,400 results
19. Sadri Abazi - PS, 16,600 results
20. Keltis Kruja - PD, 12,600 results
21. Parid Cara - PS, 21,000 results
22. Kastriot Islami - PD, 347,000 results
23. Spartak Braho - LSI2, 23,800 results
24. Asllan Dogjani - PD, 54,000 results, Klajda Gjosha - LSI
25. Artan Gaci - PS, 37,800 results
26. Visar Zhiti - PD, 279,000 resultsLuan Rama - LSI
27. Pjerin Ndreu - PS, 40,900 results
28. Ylli Shehu - PR, 22,100 results or Arben Qirjako - PD, 10,400 results or Shkelqim Barushi- LZHK, 51 results
29. Rakip Suli - PS, 31,800 results
30. Ylli Shehu - PR, 22,100 results or Arben Qirjako - PD, 10,400 results or Shkelqim Barushi- LZHK, 51 resultsTahir Muhedini - PDIU
31. Milena Harito - PS, 31,100 results or Klajda Gjosha - LSI, 93,900 results or Gentian Deliallisi - PD, 412 results or Kreshnik Spahiu - AK, 507,000 results or Bamir Topi - FRD, 1,090,000 results. Outside chance for Skender Gjinushi - PSD, 88,500 results or Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ, 172 results or Tahir Muhedini - PDIU, 25,200 results
32. Milena Harito - PS, 31,100 results or Dashamir Peza - PS,  13,200 results or Klajda Gjosha - LSI, 93,900 results or Gentian Deliallisi - PD, 412 results or Kreshnik Spahiu - AK, 507,000 results or Bamir Topi - FRD, 1,090,000 results. Outside chance for Skender Gjinushi - PSD, 88,500 results or Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ, 172 results or Tahir Muhedini - PDIU, 25,200 results

Fieri District

1. Gramoz Ruci - PS, 93,700 results
2. Sokol Olldashi - PD, 242,000 results
3. Erion Brace - PS, 45,900 results
4. Mesila Doda - PD, 98,100 results
5. Eglantina Gjermeni - PS, 35,700 results
6. Ilirjan Celibashi - PS, 19,500 results
7. Kosma Dashi - PD, 7 results
8. Armando Subashi - PS, 25,300 results
9. Shpetim Idrizi - PDIU1, 218,000 results
10. Arben Cuko - PS, 19,600 results
11. Petrit Vasili - LSI, 109,000 results
12. Bedri Mihaj - PD, 5,770 results, Robert Bitri - LSI
13. Piro Lutaj - PS, 22,800 results
14. Omer Mamo - PDIU, 8,250 results. Outside chance for Dritan Prifti, 175,000 results, Eduart Sharka - PR, 580 results, Kadri Gega - LZHK, 1,480 results, Altin Dauti - AK, 3,570 results, Shpetim Axhani - PLL, 549 results
15. Majlinda Bufi - PS, 1,590 results
16. Ervin Koci - PS, 14,800 results or Myslim Murrizi - PD, 5,110 results

Elbasan District

1. Ben Blushi - PS, 136,000 results
2. Arben Imami - PD, 542,000 results
3. Damian Gjiknuri - PS, 66,000 results
4. Eduard Selami - PD, 141,000 results
5. Evis Kushi - PS, 23,000 results
6. Ardian Turku - PD, 18,800 results
7. Alfred Peza - PS, 128,000 results
8. Luciano Boci - PD, 81,110 results
9. Taulant Balla - PS, 189,000 results
10. Dashnor Sula - PD, 29,000 results, Bujar Kllogjri - LSI
11. Edmond Haxhinasto - LSI, 229,000 results
12. Arbjola Halimi - PD, 2,700 results, Aqif Rakipi - PDIU
13. Musa Ulqini - PS, 17,900 results
14. Aurel Bylykbashi - PD, 16,000 results or Arben Kamami - PS, 2,670 results. Outside chance for Luan Duzha - PR, 8,690 results,  or Ramazan Braho - PAA, 1 result or Rezart Kovaci - PDK, 981 results.

Durres District

1. Eduard Halimi - PD, 159,000 results
2. Blendi Klosi - PS, 108,000 results
3. Igli Cara - PD, 26,600 results
4. Klodiana Spahiu - PS, 73,700 results
5. Albana Vokshi - PD, 36,400 results
6. Ilir Beqaj - PS, 9,590 results
7. Gent Strazimiri - PD, 18,300 results
8. Lefter Koka - LSI, 69,700 results
9. Oerd Bylykbashi - PD, 20,200 results
10. Namik Dokle - PS, 77,100 results
11. Osman Metalla - PD, 21,400 results, Artur Bushi - PS
12. Gentian Bejko - PS, 6,200 results
13. Vullnet Topalli - PD, 8,810 results or Agron Duka - PR, 52,200 results. Outside chance for Gazmend Oketa - FRD, 134,000 results.

Korce District

1. Bashkim Fino - PS, 149,000 results
2. Ridvan Bode - PD, 148,000 results
3. Arta Dade - PS, 128,000 results
4. Eleina Qirici - PD, 3,050 results
5. Olta Xhacka - PS, 15,900 results
6. Edmond Spaho - PD, 19,600 results
7. Ilirian Pendavinji - PS, 3,320 results
8. Fatmir Mehdiu - PR1, 211,000 results
9. Ilir Xhakolli - PS, 12,300 results
10. Gjergji Papa - PD, 9,470 results
11. Ylli Zicishti - PS, 29,800 results or Piro Kapurani - LSI, 2,530 results
12. Fatbardh Kadilli - PD, 22,400 results or Ardit Konomi - PS, 4,320 results or Ylli Zicishti - PS, 29,800 results or Piro Kapurani - LSI, 2,530 results

Vlore District

1. Edi Rama - PS, 3,380,000 results
2. Astrit Patozi - PD, 89,600 results
3. Valentina Leskaj - PS, 67,200 results
4. Koco Kokedhima - PS, 20,100 results
5. Arben Ristani - PD, 73,800 results
6. Luiza Xhuvani - PS, 111,000 results
7. Liljana Elmazi - PD, 3,630 results
8. Fatmri Toci - PS, 36,300 results
9. Andrea Marto - PBDNJ2, 4,940 results
10. Dashamir Tahiri - PDIU, 52,900 results
11. Vangjel Dule - PBDNJ, 121,000 results. Outside chance for Arben Malaj, 797,000 results or Shkelqim Selami - LSI, 5,690 results or Engjell Bejtaj - PSD, 3,220 results
12. Ardian Kollozi - PD, 31,400 results, Shkelqim Selami - LSI

Shkoder District

1. Jozefina Topalli - PD, 705,000 results
2. Mimoza Hafizi - PS, 12,200 results
3. Helidon Bushati - PD, 5,820 results
4. Voltana Ademi - PD, 6,100 results
5. Tom Doshi - PS, 79,300 results
6. Nard Ndoka - PDK1, 153,000 results
7. Paulin Sterkaj - PS, 20,600 results
8. Gjovalin Bzhetaj - PD, 365 results
9. Ndue Paluca - PD, 8,360 results, Agron Cela - LSI
10. Namik Kopliku - PS, 5,020 results. Outside chance Agron Cela - LSI, 6,470 results.
11. Bardh Spahia - PD, 23,200 results. Outside chance Gasper Kokaj - PR, 12,700 results or Pjeter Boshi - PDK, 506 results or Mark Molla - PAA, 1,250 results or Ndreke Ndoci - LDK, 137 results, Mark Frroku - PKDSH

Berat District

1. Fidel Ylli - PS, 112,000 results
2. Genc Pollo - PD, 159,000 results
3. Ermonela Felaj - PS, 39,100 results
4. Eduard Shalsi - PS, 101,000 results
5. Astrit Veliaj - PD, 111,000 results
6. Nasip Naco - LSI, 110,000 results
7. Eduart Bejko - PS, 2,770 results
8. Artan Lame - PS, 97,300 results or Lefter Maliqi - PD, 53,800 results, Gledjon Rehovica - LSI

Lezhe District

1. Aldo Bumci - PD, 162,000 results
2. Mimi Kodheli - PS, 47,600 results
3. Gjovalin Kadeli - PD, 47,100 results
4. Armando Prenga - PS, 13,400 results
5. Albina Deda - PD, 3,480 results
6. Vasil Bicaj - PD, 1,800 results
7. Arben Ndoka - PS, 19,300 results, Monika Kryemadhi - LSI

Diber District

1. Sherefedin Shehu - PD, 20,500 results
2. Shkelqim Cani - PS, 13,500 results
3. Bedri Hoxha - PD, 22,400 results
4. Roland Keta - PD, 7,430 results
5. Ulsi Manja - PS, 4,370 results
6. Ekrem Spahia - PLL1, 23,200 results, Perparim Spahiu - LSI

Gjirokaster District

1. Arben Ahmetaj - PS, 99,700 results
2. Genc Ruli - PD, 146,000 results
3. Erion Veliaj - PS, 134,000 results
4. Spiro Ksera - PD, 90,100 results, Vangjel Tavo - LSI
5. Anastas Angjeli - PS, 49,900 results

Kukes District

1. Flamur Noka - PD, 205,000 results
2. Besnik Dushaj - PD, 4,380 results
3. Vexhi Mucmataj - PS, 531 results
4. Alban Zeneli - PD, 8,640 results

Notes

1 - Included in PD list

2 - Included in PS list

Jul
28
2013

# Tollkuci Family Genealogy tree

After a short break, I'm back writing to my blog :) Today is just a quick post about a new page I added, a short overview of the Tollkuci Family Genealogy tree. Read more here

Jun
22
2013

# For the undecided: For whom to vote in Albanian Elections?

Tomorrow, Jun 23, elections will be taking place here in Albania and. The result is expected to be close so the votes of those that are still undecided will probably decide the outcome. In this post I'll be trying to provide some guidelines that can make the decision easier.

The first big decision is to decide if you'll cast a pragmatic vote or an idealist vote. This is largely dependent on the person and although most people have both a pragmatic side and idealist side, you first have to choose what's the better option in this case. If you decide to go with a pragmatic vote, there are two alternatives:

1. Cast your vote to decide the next prime minister. There are only three realistic alternatives: Sali Berisha - PD, Edi Rama - PS and Ilir Meta - LSI. Choose the one you think is the best next prime minister and cast the vote to the corresponding party.
2. Cast your vote to decide the best candidate in your district. With the current elections system the votes of the undecided will most likely decide only the last mandate in each district (the last two in Tirana probably). So compare the alternatives and vote for the one you think is the best representative in the next parliament. For Tirana the last mandates to be decided (based on my prediction) are:
1. Milena Harito - PS or Klajda Gjosha - LSI or Gentian Deliallisi - PD or Kreshnik Spahiu - AK or Bamir Topi - FRD. Outside chance for Skender Gjinushi - PSD or Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ or Tahir Muhedini - PDIU
2. Milena Harito - PS or Dashamir Peza - PS or Klajda Gjosha - LSI or Gentian Deliallisi - PD or Kreshnik Spahiu - AK or Bamir Topi - FRD. Outside chance for Skender Gjinushi - PSD or Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ or Tahir Muhedini - PDIU

To summarize the above options your vote will decide between:

1. Milena Harito or Dashamir Peza - PS
2. Klajda Gjosha - LSI
3. Gentian Deliallisi - PD
4. Kreshnik Spahiu - AK
5. Bamir Topi - FRD
6. Skender Gjinushi - PSD
7. Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ
8. Tahir Muhedini - PDIU

The other big alternative is to go the idealist route. In this case also there are two options:

1. If you don't find any good alternative between the 66 parties taking part in the elections you should go and cast an invalid vote to show your frustration with the current state of politics in Albania.
2. Otherwise you choose the party that best represent your ideal and vote for that party, without caring for the coalition winner, next prime minister, etc.

To provide some help on the 66 parties taking part in the election I'll try and provide some clues on the position taken by each party from the program point of view.

Far right

PBKD - BALLI KOMBËTAR DEMOKRAT, ARTUR ROSHI (Right coalition)

PLL - PARTIA LËVIZJA E LEGALITETIT, EKREM SPAHIU (Right coalition)

Right

PLiDr - LIGJ DHE DREJTËSI, SPARTAK NGJELA (Left coalition)

PBR - PARTIA BASHKIMI REPUBLIKAN SHQIPTAR, ZANE LLAZI (Left coalition)

PR - PARTIA REPUBLIKANE SHQIPTARE, FATMIR MEDIU (Right coalition)

LZHK - LËVIZJA PËR ZHVILLIM KOMBËTAR, DASHAMIR SHEHI (Right coalition)

BLD - BASHKIMI LIBERAL DEMOKRAT, ARIAN STAROVA (Right coalition)

KONS - PARTIA KONSERVATORE, ARMANDO RUÇO (Right coalition)

Center right

PPKDSH - PARTIA POPULLORE KRISTIANDEMOKRATE E SHQIPËRISË, PAL SHKAMBI

MDL - PARTIA MENDIMI I DJATHTË LIBERAL, LAURETË LICI (Left coalition)

PKDSH - PARTIA KRISTIAN DEMOKRATE E SHQIPËRISË, DHIMITER MUSLIA (Left coalition)

ADK - ARTIA ALEANCA DEMOKRISTIANE E SHQIPËRISË, ZEF BUSHATI (Left coalition)

ADS - ALEANCA PËR DEMOKRACI DHE SOLIDARITET, GAQO APOSTOLI (Right coalition)

AD - ALEANCA DEMOKRATIKE, ARBEN DEMETI (Right coalition)

PD - PARTIA DEMOKRATIKE, SALI BERISHA (Right coalition)

PDK - PARTIA DEMOKRISTIANE E SHQIPËRISË, NARD NDOKA (Right coalition)

LDK - PARTIA LIDHJA DEMOKRISTIANE SHQIPTARE, NIKOLL LESI (Right coalition)

PBD - PARTIA BASHKIMI DEMOKRAT SHQIPTAR, YLBER VALTERI (Right coalition)

FRD - FRYMA E RE DEMOKRATIKE, BAMIR TOPI

LDP - LIDHJA PËR DREJTËSI DHE PROGRES, ELMAZ SHERIFI

Center left

G99 - PARTIA G 99,  ERVIN METE (Left coalition)

PDS - PARTIA DEMOKRACIA SOCIALE, PASKAL MILO (Left coalition)

LSI - LËVIZJA SOCIALISTE PËR INTEGRIM, ILIR META (Left coalition)

PS - PARTIA SOCIALISTE E SHQIPËRISË, EDI RAMA (Left coalition)

PSM - PARTIA SOCIALISTE E MODERUAR, GJERGJI KOJA (Left coalition)

Left

PSV 91 - PARTIA SOCIALISTE E VËRTETË 91, PETRO KOÇI (Left coalition)

PSP - PARTIA SOCIALPUNTORE SHQIPTARE, RAMADAN NDREKA (Left coalition)

PSD - PARTIA SOCIALDEMOKRATE E SHQIPËRISË, SKËNDER GJINUSHI (Left coalition)

Far left

PPSH - PARTIA E PUNËS SË SHQIPËRISË, MUHARREM XHAFA (Left coalition)

PKSH - PARTIA KOMUNISTE E SHQIPËRISË, QEMAL CICOLLARI (Left coalition)

PPSHR - PARTIA E PUNËS E SHQIPËRISË E RIORGANIZUAR, MARKO DAJTI (Left coalition)

PKSH 8 Nëntori - PARTIA KOMUNISTE E SHQIPËRISË 8 NËNTORI, PRENG ÇUNI (Left coalition)

Nationalist

AP - ALEANCA POPULLORE, ARTUR DOJAKA (Left coalition), focused on Chameria case.

PDIU - PARTIA DREJTËSI, INTEGRIM DHE UNITET, SHPËTIM IDRIZI (Right coalition), focused on Chameria case.

AK - ALEANCA KUQ E ZI, KRESHNIK SPAHIU

PUK - PARTIA UNITETIT KOMBETAR, IDAJET BEQIRI (Left coalition)

PSHA - PARTIA SHQIPTARE ATDHEU, KRESHNIK OSMANI (Left coalition)

PPK - PARTIA PAJTIMIT KOMBËTAR, SPARTAK DOBI (Left coalition), focused on Chameria case.

AAK - ALEANCA ARBNORE KOMBËTARE, GJET NDOJ (Left coalition)

PCSH - PARTIA E ÇËSHTJEVE SHQIPTARE, BUJAR SHURDHI (Left coalition), focused on Chameria case.

Islamist

PLSHR - PARTIA LËVIZJA SHQIPËRIA E RE, EDMOND VLASHAJ (Right coalition)

Minorities/Emigrants

PBDNJ - PARTIA BASHKIMI PËR TË DREJTAT E NJERIUT, VANGJEL DULE (Left coalition), focused on Greek minority

PMDE - PARTIA PËR MBROJTJEN E TË DREJTAVE TË EMIGRANTËVE, YMER KURTI (Left coalition)

MEGA - PARTIA MINORITETI ETNIK GREK PËR TË ARDHMEN, KRISTO KIÇO (Right coalition), focused on Greek minority

AMIE - ALEANCA E MAQEDONASVE PËR INTEGRIMIN EUROPIAN, EDMOND THEMELKO (Right coalition), focused on Macedonian minority

ABDE - ALEANCA PËR BARAZI DHE DREJTËSI EUROPIANE, VALENTINO MUSTAKA (Left coalition), focused on Vlachs minority

LDSH - LËVIZJA PËR DREJTËSI E SHQIPËTARËVE, ASTRIT KOSTURI (Left coalition), focused on emigrants

PTR e Shqiperise - PARTIA TOLERANCA E RE E SHQIPËRISË, AVDI KECI (Left coalition), focused on Egyptian minority

PESH - PARTIA EMIGRACIONI SHQIPTAR, KOSTAQ PAPA (Right coalition), focused on emigrants

Ambientalist

PGJ - PARTIA E GJELBËR, EDLIR PETANAJ (Left coalition)

PA - PARTIA AMBIENTALISTE, NASI BOZHEKU (Left coalition)

PAA - PARTIA AGRARE AMBIENTALISTE E SHQIPËRISË, LUFTER XHUVELI (Right coalition)

Ex-persecuted under Communism

PRL - PARTIA RRUGA E LIRISË, KURT KOLA (Left coalition)

PDM - PARTIA E TË DREJTAVE TË MOHUARA, ILIR VATA (Right coalition)

PDM e Re -PARTIA E TË DREJTAVE TË MOHUARA E RE,  FATMIR HOXHA (Right coalition)

Limited abilities/Retired

PPAK - PARTIA PERSONAT ME AFTËSI TË KUFIZUAR, AFRIM JESHILI (Left coalition)

PBPPSH - PARTIA BASHKIMI POPULLOR I PENSIONISTËVE SHQIPTAR, SELAMI JENISHERI (Right coalition)

Unknown

PRDSH - PARTIA E REFORMAVE DEMOKRATIKE SHQIPTARE, SKENDER HALILI (Left coalition)

PDIP - PARTIA DEMOKRATE PËR INTEGRIM E PROSPERITET, HALIM SEITAJ (Left coalition)

PLPSH - PARTIA LËVIZJA PUNËTORE SHQIPTARE, SHEFQET MUSARAJ (Left coalition)

PASH - PARTIA ARDHMËRIJA SHQIPTARE, EMIN SUBASHI (Left coalition)

PLDN - PARTIA LËVIZJA DEMOKRATIKE PËR NDRYSHIM, NIKOLIN STAKA (Left coalition)

PDRE - PARTIA DEMOKRACIA E RE EUROPIANE, KOÇI TAHIRI (Right coalition)

PRVSH - PARTIA RRUGA E VËRTETË SHQIPTARE, MUHARREM DODA (Right coalition)

POSH - PARTIA ORA E SHQIPËRISË, ZEF SHTJEFNI (Right coalition)

Jun
22
2013

# List of deputies in the next Parliament

Now that all the calculations for each district are finished, we can predict the list of 140 deputies after the elections. I will list them for district and will use code coloring to distinguish their status (guaranteed, highly likely, 50-50 contest and outside chance). I will use bold and green for guaranteed deputies, green for highly likely ones, red for the 50-50 contests and grey for those with an outside chance.

To make things a little more interesting, for each name I will include an indication on how popular and well known each candidate is. The best indication for this is the number of Google search results displayed when searching for their full name.

So, finally here it's the list of the 140 deputies of the next Parliament.

Tirana District

1. Pandeli Majko - PS, 245,000 results
2. Sali Berisha - PD, 4,080,000 results
3. Saimir Tahiri - PS, 125,000 results
4. Myqerem Tafaj - PD, 72,200 results
5. Vasilika Hysi - PS, 42,600 results
6. Majlinda Bregu - PD, 264,000 results
7. Ditmir Bushati - PS, 152,000 results
8. Halim Kosova - PD, 108,000 results
9. Fatmir Xhafaj - PS, 48,400 results
10. Florion Mima - PD, 13,600 results
11. Ilir Meta - LSI, 1,260,000 results
12. Gerti Bogdani - PD, 113,000 results
13. Lindita Nikolla - PS, 26,700 results
14. Dashamir Shehi - LZHK1,,42,500 results
15. Besnik Baraj - PS, 39,500 results
16. Jorida Tabaku - PD, 40,800 results
17. Xhemal Qefalia - PS, 18,900 results
18. Edi Paloka - PD, 49,400 results
19. Sadri Abazi - PS, 16,600 results
20. Keltis Kruja - PD, 12,600 results
21. Parid Cara - PS, 21,000 results
22. Kastriot Islami - PD, 347,000 results
23. Spartak Braho - LSI2, 23,800 results
24. Asllan Dogjani - PD, 54,000 results
25. Artan Gaci - PS, 37,800 results
26. Visar Zhiti - PD, 279,000 results
27. Pjerin Ndreu - PS, 40,900 results
28. Ylli Shehu - PR, 22,100 results or Arben Qirjako - PD, 10,400 results or Shkelqim Barushi- LZHK, 51 results
29. Rakip Suli - PS, 31,800 results
30. Ylli Shehu - PR, 22,100 results or Arben Qirjako - PD, 10,400 results or Shkelqim Barushi- LZHK, 51 results
31. Milena Harito - PS, 31,100 results or Klajda Gjosha - LSI, 93,900 results or Gentian Deliallisi - PD, 412 results or Kreshnik Spahiu - AK, 507,000 results or Bamir Topi - FRD, 1,090,000 results. Outside chance for Skender Gjinushi - PSD, 88,500 results or Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ, 172 results or Tahir Muhedini - PDIU, 25,200 results
32. Milena Harito - PS, 31,100 results or Dashamir Peza - PS,  13,200 results or Klajda Gjosha - LSI, 93,900 results or Gentian Deliallisi - PD, 412 results or Kreshnik Spahiu - AK, 507,000 results or Bamir Topi - FRD, 1,090,000 results. Outside chance for Skender Gjinushi - PSD, 88,500 results or Evjeni Kota - PBDNJ, 172 results or Tahir Muhedini - PDIU, 25,200 results

Fieri District

1. Gramoz Ruci - PS, 93,700 results
2. Sokol Olldashi - PD, 242,000 results
3. Erion Brace - PS, 45,900 results
4. Mesila Doda - PD, 98,100 results
5. Eglantina Gjermeni - PS, 35,700 results
6. Ilirjan Celibashi - PS, 19,500 results
7. Kosma Dashi - PD, 7 results
8. Armando Subashi - PS, 25,300 results
9. Shpetim Idrizi - PDIU1, 218,000 results
10. Arben Cuko - PS, 19,600 results
11. Petrit Vasili - LSI, 109,000 results
12. Bedri Mihaj - PD, 5,770 results
13. Piro Lutaj - PS, 22,800 results
14. Omer Mamo - PDIU, 8,250 results. Outside chance for Dritan Prifti, 175,000 results, Eduart Sharka - PR, 580 results, Kadri Gega - LZHK, 1,480 results, Altin Dauti - AK, 3,570 results, Shpetim Axhani - PLL, 549 results
15. Majlinda Bufi - PS, 1,590 results
16. Ervin Koci - PS, 14,800 results or Myslim Murrizi - PD, 5,110 results

Elbasan District

1. Ben Blushi - PS, 136,000 results
2. Arben Imami - PD, 542,000 results
3. Damian Gjiknuri - PS, 66,000 results
4. Eduard Selami - PD, 141,000 results
5. Evis Kushi - PS, 23,000 results
6. Ardian Turku - PD, 18,800 results
7. Alfred Peza - PS, 128,000 results
8. Luciano Boci - PD, 81,110 results
9. Taulant Balla - PS, 189,000 results
10. Dashnor Sula - PD, 29,000 results
11. Edmond Haxhinasto - LSI, 229,000 results
12. Arbjola Halimi - PD, 2,700 results
13. Musa Ulqini - PS, 17,900 results
14. Aurel Bylykbashi - PD, 16,000 results or Arben Kamami - PS, 2,670 results. Outside chance for Luan Duzha - PR, 8,690 results,  or Ramazan Braho - PAA, 1 result or Rezart Kovaci - PDK, 981 results.

Durres District

1. Eduard Halimi - PD, 159,000 results
2. Blendi Klosi - PS, 108,000 results
3. Igli Cara - PD, 26,600 results
4. Klodiana Spahiu - PS, 73,700 results
5. Albana Vokshi - PD, 36,400 results
6. Ilir Beqaj - PS, 9,590 results
7. Gent Strazimiri - PD, 18,300 results
8. Lefter Koka - LSI, 69,700 results
9. Oerd Bylykbashi - PD, 20,200 results
10. Namik Dokle - PS, 77,100 results
11. Osman Metalla - PD, 21,400 results
12. Gentian Bejko - PS, 6,200 results
13. Vullnet Topalli - PD, 8,810 results or Agron Duka - PR, 52,200 results. Outside chance for Gazmend Oketa - FRD, 134,000 results.

Korce District

1. Bashkim Fino - PS, 149,000 results
2. Ridvan Bode - PD, 148,000 results
3. Arta Dade - PS, 128,000 results
4. Eleina Qirici - PD, 3,050 results
5. Olta Xhacka - PS, 15,900 results
6. Edmond Spaho - PD, 19,600 results
7. Ilirian Pendavinji - PS, 3,320 results
8. Fatmir Mehdiu - PR1, 211,000 results
9. Ilir Xhakolli - PS, 12,300 results
10. Gjergji Papa - PD, 9,470 results
11. Ylli Zicishti - PS, 29,800 results or Piro Kapurani - LSI, 2,530 results
12. Fatbardh Kadilli - PD, 22,400 results or Ardit Konomi - PS, 4,320 results or Ylli Zicishti - PS, 29,800 results or Piro Kapurani - LSI, 2,530 results

Vlore District

1. Edi Rama - PS, 3,380,000 results
2. Astrit Patozi - PD, 89,600 results
3. Valentina Leskaj - PS, 67,200 results
4. Koco Kokedhima - PS, 20,100 results
5. Arben Ristani - PD, 73,800 results
6. Luiza Xhuvani - PS, 111,000 results
7. Liljana Elmazi - PD, 3,630 results
8. Fatmri Toci - PS, 36,300 results
9. Andrea Marto - PBDNJ2, 4,940 results
10. Dashamir Tahiri - PDIU, 52,900 results
11. Vangjel Dule - PBDNJ, 121,000 results. Outside chance for Arben Malaj, 797,000 results or Shkelqim Selami - LSI, 5,690 results or Engjell Bejtaj - PSD, 3,220 results
12. Ardian Kollozi - PD, 31,400 results

Shkoder District

1. Jozefina Topalli - PD, 705,000 results
2. Mimoza Hafizi - PS, 12,200 results
3. Helidon Bushati - PD, 5,820 results
4. Voltana Ademi - PD, 6,100 results
5. Tom Doshi - PS, 79,300 results
6. Nard Ndoka - PDK1, 153,000 results
7. Paulin Sterkaj - PS, 20,600 results
8. Gjovalin Bzhetaj - PD, 365 results
9. Ndue Paluca - PD, 8,360 results
10. Namik Kopliku - PS, 5,020 results. Outside chance Agron Cela - LSI, 6,470 results.
11. Bardh Spahia - PD, 23,200 results. Outside chance Gasper Kokaj - PR, 12,700 results or Pjeter Boshi - PDK, 506 results or Mark Molla - PAA, 1,250 results or Ndreke Ndoci - LDK, 137 results

Berat District

1. Fidel Ylli - PS, 112,000 results
2. Genc Pollo - PD, 159,000 results
3. Ermonela Felaj - PS, 39,100 results
4. Eduard Shalsi - PS, 101,000 results
5. Astrit Veliaj - PD, 111,000 results
6. Nasip Naco - LSI, 110,000 results
7. Eduart Bejko - PS, 2,770 results
8. Artan Lame - PS, 97,300 results or Lefter Maliqi - PD, 53,800 results

Lezhe District

1. Aldo Bumci - PD, 162,000 results
2. Mimi Kodheli - PS, 47,600 results
3. Gjovalin Kadeli - PD, 47,100 results
4. Armando Prenga - PS, 13,400 results
5. Albina Deda - PD, 3,480 results
6. Vasil Bicaj - PD, 1,800 results
7. Arben Ndoka - PS, 19,300 results

Diber District

1. Sherefedin Shehu - PD, 20,500 results
2. Shkelqim Cani - PS, 13,500 results
3. Bedri Hoxha - PD, 22,400 results
4. Roland Keta - PD, 7,430 results
5. Ulsi Manja - PS, 4,370 results
6. Ekrem Spahia - PLL1, 23,200 results

Gjirokaster District

1. Arben Ahmetaj - PS, 99,700 results
2. Genc Ruli - PD, 146,000 results
3. Erion Veliaj - PS, 134,000 results
4. Spiro Ksera - PD, 90,100 results
5. Anastas Angjeli - PS, 49,900 results

Kukes District

1. Flamur Noka - PD, 205,000 results
2. Besnik Dushaj - PD, 4,380 results
3. Vexhi Mucmataj - PS, 531 results
4. Alban Zeneli - PD, 8,640 results

Notes

1 - Included in PD list

2 - Included in PS list

Jun
17
2013

# Elections in Albania: From a math point of view, Part XII (Tirana)

At last we completed all other districts and it's the turn of Tirana which is both the largest district with 32 mandates and the hottest one. Excluding Tirana things are pretty much even, with the PD coalition very likely to get 51 mandates and the PS coalition very likely to get 53 mandates, so Tirana is expected to be the decisive vote. The results of the 2009 elections projected in the 2013 coalitions give the same result with each coalition getting 16 mandates. Now let's look a bit more closely at the different factors that may influence the result in Tirana:

1. FRD of Bamir Topi is expected to get an considerable number of votes. It's difficult to make a prediction, but considering the fact that more than 11,000 votes are needed to get one mandate, I would give at least a 50% chance. Also it's reasonable to say that most of those votes will come from those of PD.
2. AK of Kreshnik Spahiu is also expected to get some support. Again it's very difficult to make a precise prediction, but I would expect to challenge the 11,000 votes barrier for one mandate. In this case the distribution of votes it's more difficult to judge, but at least some of them will be from the extrem camp of PS supporters.
3. LZHK of Dashamir Shehi this time is part of the PD coalition and should have a good chance to win one mandate.

Going back at the numbers from the 2009 elections the PS coalition is leading by about 10 thousand votes and is pretty much guaranteed to win 16 mandates. Also with less than 0.5% more votes it can win the 17th mandate, while to get the 18th mandate the difference is about 7% and we can rule it out. On the other hand the PD coalition needs a difference of about 6% to win more than 16 mandate which we can also rule out. So in total for Tirana district:

• PS coalition is guaranteed to win 15 mandates and likely 16 mandates. Inside the coalition LSI is guaranteed to win 1 mandate and is very close to win the 2nd one. PSD and PBDNJ are the remaining larger parties and those have only an outside chance.
• PD coalition is guaranteed to win 14 mandates and likely 15 mandates. Inside the coalition both PR and LZHK have a very good chance to win 1 mandate, while PDIU has only an outside chance to win it from PR or LZHK.
• The last mandate is up for grabs between PS coalition, PD coalition, FRD and AK.

Country wise the final tables at the party level are:

Outcome with a probability of 99%

 District PD PS LSI PDIU PBDNJ Kukes 3 1 0 0 0 Gjirokaster 2 3 0 0 0 Diber 4 2 0 0 0 Lezhe 4 3 0 0 0 Berat 2 4 1 0 0 Shkoder 7 4 0 0 0 Vlore 4 6 0 1 1 Korce 5 5 0 0 0 Durres 6 5 1 0 0 Elbasan 6 6 1 0 0 Fier 5 8 1 1 0 Tirana 13 14 1 0 0 Total 61 61 5 2 1

Outcome with a probability of 99.9%

 District PD PS LSI PDIU PBDNJ Kukes 3 1 0 0 0 Gjirokaster 2 3 0 0 0 Diber 4 2 0 0 0 Lezhe 4 2 0 0 0 Berat 2 4 1 0 0 Shkoder 6 3 0 0 0 Vlore 3 5 0 1 1 Korce 5 5 0 0 0 Durres 6 5 1 0 0 Elbasan 6 6 1 0 0 Fier 5 8 1 0 0 Tirana 12 13 1 0 0 Total 58 57 5 1 1

Outside chance (1%)

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).
• PR, PAA or PDK to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Elbasan.
• PR, PLL, LZHK, AK or Dritan Prifti to get one mandate (from either PDIU or PD) in Fier.
• PSD or PBDNJ to win one mandate (from within the PS coalition) in Tirane.
• PDUI to win one mandate (from within the PD coalition) in Tirane.

Hot contests (50-50)

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 11th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Korce for the 12th mandate.
• PD-PR in Durres for the 13th mandate.
• PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14th mandate.
• PD-PS in Fier for the 16th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Tirana for the last mandate within the coalition.
• PD-PR-LZHK in Tirana for the two last mandates within the coalition.
• PD-PS-FRD-AK in Tirana for the two last mandates.

At the coalitions level the final tables are:

Outcome with a probability of 99%

 District PD coalition PS coalition Kukes 3 1 Gjirokaster 2 3 Diber 4 2 Lezhe 4 3 Berat 2 5 Shkoder 7 4 Vlore 5 7 Korce 5 6 Durres 7 6 Elbasan 6 7 Fier 6 9 Tirane 15 15 Total 66 68

Outcome with a probability of 99.9%

 District PD coalition PS coalition Kukes 3 1 Gjirokaster 2 3 Diber 4 2 Lezhe 4 2 Berat 2 5 Shkoder 7 4 Vlore 4 6 Korce 5 6 Durres 6 6 Elbasan 6 7 Fier 5 9 Tirane 14 15 Total 62 66

Outside chance (1%)

• PD coalition to get 5 mandates (and PS coalition only 2) in Lezhe.
• Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS coalition to get 6) in Vlore.
• PS coalition to get one extra mandate from the PD coalition in Vlore.
• FRD to get one mandate (from PD coalition) in Durres.
• AK or Dritan Prifti to get one mandate (from PD coalition) in Fier.

Hot contests (50-50)

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 12th mandate.
• PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14th mandate.
• PD-PS in Fier for the 16th mandate.
• PD-PS-FRD-AK in Tirane for the 31th and 32th mandates.

So after all these calculations there is no clear cut winner. All will be decided depending on the winner of the last mandates in Berat, Korce, Elbasan, Fier and Tirana.

Jun
12
2013

# Elections in Albania: From a math point of view, Part XI (Fier)

Fier is second largest district after Tirana and potentially one of decisive districts with a total of 16 mandates. In the 2009 elections the PS coalition won 9 mandates, LSI one mandate and PD 6 mandates. Those results projected in the 2013 elections give the PS coalition only 9 mandates and the PD coalition gets 7 mandates (the extra mandate goes to PDIU). However the difference between the 10th mandate for the PS coalition and the 7th mandate of the PD coalition is less than 1% which make it the next hot contest. Another factor to consider is that Dritan Prifti is an independent candidate in Fier and it's expected to get votes from those of LSI. However there's only an outside chance for him to get a mandate and on the other hand LSI is guaranteed to keep the mandate because now it's inside a coalition and only about 5,000 votes are needed. From the new "entries", there's no indication that FRD will play any major role, while AK will probably get a considerable number of votes which give it an outside chance.

Going down inside the PD coalition, PDIU is very likely to get 1 mandate considering that now it's stronger than in 2009. Also PR, PLL and LZHK have an outside chance, but it's unlikely that any of them will surpass PDIU. That leaves PD with the remaining mandates, 6 in case the coalition gets 7 mandates and 5 otherwise. On the other side, as I said above, LSI is guaranteed to keep its mandate. The only other party with a chance is PSD, but with LSI inside the coalition its chance are null, so the rest of the mandates goes to PS.

In summary, the prediction for Fier is:

• PS guaranteed 8 mandates.
• PD guaranteed 5 mandates.
• LSI guaranteed 1 mandate.
• PDIU very likely to get 1 mandate. Outside chance for Dritan Prifti, PR, PLL, LZHK, AK.
• 50-50 contest between PS and PD for the last mandate.

Country wise the tables are

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

 District PD PS LSI PDIU PBDNJ Kukes 3 1 0 0 0 Gjirokaster 2 3 0 0 0 Diber 4 2 0 0 0 Lezhe 4 3 0 0 0 Berat 2 4 1 0 0 Shkoder 7 4 0 0 0 Vlore 4 6 0 1 1 Korce 5 5 0 0 0 Durres 6 5 1 0 0 Elbasan 6 6 1 0 0 Fier 5 8 1 1 0 Total 48 47 4 2 1

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

 District PD PS LSI PDIU PBDNJ Kukes 3 1 0 0 0 Gjirokaster 2 3 0 0 0 Diber 4 2 0 0 0 Lezhe 4 2 0 0 0 Berat 2 4 1 0 0 Shkoder 6 3 0 0 0 Vlore 3 5 0 1 1 Korce 5 5 0 0 0 Durres 6 5 1 0 0 Elbasan 6 6 1 0 0 Fier 5 8 1 0 0 Total 46 44 3 1 1

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).
• PR, PAA or PDK to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Elbasan.
• PR, PLL, LZHK, AK or Dritan Prifti to get one mandate (from either PDIU or PD) in Fier.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 11th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Korce for the 12th mandate.
• PD-PR in Durres for the 13th mandate.
• PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14th mandate.
• PD-PS in Fier for the 16th mandate.

Now only Tirana is left, which of course is the hottest and more interesting district. Happy reading until next post :)

Jun
9
2013

# Elections in Albania: From a math point of view, Part X (Elbasan)

With 14 mandates, Elbasan is the 3rd biggest district and provides 14 mandates in total. In the 2009 elections it was all equal with PD and PS each winning 7 mandates. Those results projected on the 2013 coalitions give the same result, but inside the PS coalition, PS gets 6 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. However, let's look a bit more closely at the numbers:

1. There's a very very small margin between the 7th mandate of the PD coalition and the 8th mandate of the PS coalition. Basically the fight for the 14th mandate is a 50-50 contest between the PD coalition and PS coalition.
2. Inside the PD coalition there are three parties: PR, PAA and PDK with an outside chance to get the last mandate. They need 600 to 1,400 more votes than in 2009.
3. Inside the PS coalition LSI is guaranteed to get one mandate, while the other parties have no chance.
4. There is nothing to suggest that neither of the parties FRD or AK are to get a significant number of votes in Elbasan.

So in total, Elbasan should be a straightforward district with:

• PS guaranteed (99.9%) 6 mandates.
• PD guaranteed (99.9%) 6 mandates.
• LSI guaranteed (99.9%) 1 mandate.
• A 50-50 contest between PD and PS for the 14th mandate. In case it goes to PD, there's an outside chance for PR, PAA or PDK to get it.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

 District PD PS LSI PDIU PBDNJ Kukes 3 1 0 0 0 Gjirokaster 2 3 0 0 0 Diber 4 2 0 0 0 Lezhe 4 3 0 0 0 Berat 2 4 1 0 0 Shkoder 7 4 0 0 0 Vlore 4 6 0 1 1 Korce 5 5 0 0 0 Durres 6 5 1 0 0 Elbasan 6 6 1 0 0 Total 43 39 3 1 1

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

 District PD PS LSI PDIU PBDNJ Kukes 3 1 0 0 0 Gjirokaster 2 3 0 0 0 Diber 4 2 0 0 0 Lezhe 4 2 0 0 0 Berat 2 4 1 0 0 Shkoder 6 3 0 0 0 Vlore 3 5 0 1 1 Korce 5 5 0 0 0 Durres 6 5 1 0 0 Elbasan 6 6 1 0 0 Total 41 36 3 1 1

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).
• PR, PAA or PDK to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Elbasan.

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 11th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Korce for the 12th mandate.
• PD-PR in Durres for the 13th mandate.
• PD-PS in Elbasan for the 14th mandate.

Only 2 districts to go, with Fier next in list.

Jun
3
2013

# Elections in Albania: From a math point of view, Part IX (Durres)

Durres is the 4th biggest district and produces 13 mandates. In the 2009 elections, PD won 7 mandates, PS 5 and LSI 1. Those results projected using the 2013 coalitions give 7 mandates to the PD coalition and 6 mandates to the PS coalition. However things are a bit more complicated in Durres, for the following reasons:

• One of the leading figures of PD, Gazmend Oketa, has left PD for FRD and it's expected to get some votes from PD.
• Ex PS member, Agron Duka, is leading the PR list in Durres (inside PD coalition). It's expected to get votes from the PS coalition and mostly from LSI.
• AK also is expected to get some votes with most of them coming from the PS coalition.

Combining the above points, my prediction for Durres is:

• It's very likely (99%) that the PD coalition will keep 7 mandates.
• Also, it's highly likely (99.9%) that the PS coalition will get 6 mandates.
• There's an outside chance for FRD to get the 13th mandate from PD coalition.

Inside the PD coalition, PD will get 6 mandates, but the 7th is a 50-50 contest between PD and PR. While inside the PS coalition, there should be no surprises with PS getting 5 mandates and LSI 1 mandate. So in total, for Durres we have:

• PD is virtually secure (99.9%) to get 6 mandates.
• PS is virtually secure (99.9%) to get 5 mandates.
• LSI is virtually secure (99.9%) to get 1 mandate.
• There's a 50-50 contest between PD and PR for the 13th mandate.
• There's a outside chance (1%) for FRD to get the 13th mandate from either PD or PR.

Country wise the tables look like this.

With a probability of 99% the outcome will be:

 District PD PS LSI PDIU PBDNJ Kukes 3 1 0 0 0 Gjirokaster 2 3 0 0 0 Diber 4 2 0 0 0 Lezhe 4 3 0 0 0 Berat 2 4 1 0 0 Shkoder 7 4 0 0 0 Vlore 4 6 0 1 1 Korce 5 5 0 0 0 Durres 6 5 1 0 0 Total 37 33 2 1 1

With a probability of 99.9% the outcome will be:

 District PD PS LSI PDIU PBDNJ Kukes 3 1 0 0 0 Gjirokaster 2 3 0 0 0 Diber 4 2 0 0 0 Lezhe 4 2 0 0 0 Berat 2 4 1 0 0 Shkoder 6 3 0 0 0 Vlore 3 5 0 1 1 Korce 5 5 0 0 0 Durres 6 5 1 0 0 Total 35 30 2 1 1

Outside chance (1%):

• PD to get 5 mandates (and PS only 2) in Lezhe.
• PDK, LDK, PR or PAA to get one mandate (and PD to get 6) in Shkoder.
• LSI to get one mandate (and PS to get 3) in Shkoder.
• LSI, PSD or Arben Malaj to get one mandate (and PS to get 5) in Vlore.
• FRD to get one mandate in Durres (from either PD or PR).

Hot contests (50-50):

• PD-PS in Berat for the 8th mandate.
• PD-PS in Korce for the 11th mandate.
• PS-LSI in Korce for the 12th mandate.
• PD-PR in Durres for the 13th mandate.

Still 3 districts to go, with Elbasan next in list.